After a sound rebound, the S&P500 has reached a psychological level where new stimulus is needed for the next leg up.
A the same time, the noise generated by Tweet messages have restarted. Trump is threatening Germany over the doubling of the Nord Stream pipeline, in a (in our opinion) stretched tentative of promoting US LNG *.
Although we avoid following these noises, this new threat comes at an important moment. When the SP500 has reached the 2900 area again.
In the short term, the perspective of a slowing US economy in our opinion will overtake the effects of possible additional rate cuts for the FED in 2019 and 2020. The SP500 con go to 2500 before bouncing back. We keep and increase our short position on the SP500.
Economic data to watch this morning and tomorrow
German inflation (expected to be 1.4 YOY). Please note that Bund yield is -.8%)
US import/export prices, Job claims and tomorrow: retail sales and industrial activity.
Simplify Partners Management Team
* additionally, the US have deployed additional 1000 troops to Poland in a new tentative of dividing the European countries.