A beautiful Troyan horse

Whether the UK is trying to postpone Brexit until after the European elections or going towards an hard Brexit on March 29th is unclear. In both cases it might deliver a destabilising stroke to the EU. It sounds like PM May managed to transform the apparent mess in Parliament into a win win situation. If Brexit will be postponed until after European elections, it might end up with a representative even after Brexit. Being, most likely, Nigel Farage this person, it is difficult to imagine he will not try to pass the Leavers message and put obstacles to the work of the European Parliament. If UK crashes out the EU on March 29, the shockwave will propagate not only Limeyland but also on the continent.

It is now evident that the main aim of this campaign seems to destabilise the EU rather then "regain control" of the borders. Dividi et impera.

As El-Erian highlights in his book, The Only Game in Town. Modern economies have become more complex as the number of basic variables has risen to four: Economics, Policy, Geopolitics and Markets. Economies are diverging along precise paths, but this is not the point of this blog. The Brexit campaign has exploited the emerging trends of anti establishment parties for pursuing the secular english strategies of separating its opponents and try to profit form that.

I understand this is a pretty opinionated analysis and does not hide some admiration for the strategies somehow shown here and the way and timing these are implemented.

It is not immediate to read across these moments but a crashing Brexit on 29 wouldn't be any good for the British Pound.

4 views0 comments

Recent Posts

See All

The (ephemeral) value of passive management

• In 2020, as in the last decade, those who invested by reproducing the performance of the indices were rewarded even if they were exposed to high volatility • The markets were once again fueled by li